In June 2026 the Sea Level Rise Knowledge Programme found that Dutch flood defence can technically handle up to 3 m of sea-level rise, but Dutch fresh water may not cope with far less. Its current approach of sand nourishment, dikes and open-closable storm-surge barriers could probably handle 5 m, if space, money and people are available. It also found that at 0.5 m of rise twice as much fresh water is needed to flush polders, and at 1 m the Rhine and Meuse will not carry enough water to meet demand.
How close is one metre?
KNMI's official 2023 scenarios project sea-level rise off the Dutch coast of more than 1 m by 2100 in the low-emission scenario and up to 2.5 m in the high-emission scenario. Rijkswaterstaat states that 60% of the Netherlands could be flooded. The country already depends on upstream rivers for 80 of the 91 km³ of renewable water it receives in an average year.
Defences built now will be rebuilt
The ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management told parliament in January 2026 that about two-thirds of primary flood defences would need reinforcing again after 2050 if the current strategy continues. The reinforced Afsluitdijk, commissioned on 1 October 2026, raised discharge capacity from the IJsselmeer by 45%, ahead of the extra capacity Rijkswaterstaat expects to need from 2045.
The money is short
The Delta Programme Commissioner puts the funding needed to 2050 for flood safety, freshwater and adaptation at EUR 34–42 billion, against about EUR 29 billion assumed in the Delta Fund. In September 2026 the programme's second six-yearly review concluded that continuing on the current course is not an option.
What the 2026 drought exposed, which adaptation programmes are funded and which decisions fall due in 2027 are set out in the full brief. The full report, Climate Resilience: Drought and Flood Risk in Netherlands, is available for USD 249. For a free overview, see Netherlands Country Snapshot.