Analysis

Abu Dhabi's Water Margin Is 15% or 32%, Depending on Which Official Figure Is Used

Abu Dhabi's 2023 peak water demand of 3.59 million m³ a day left a margin of about 15% or 32%, depending on which of two regulator capacity figures is used.

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Abu Dhabi's peak water demand reached 3.59 million m³ a day in 2023, but how much headroom the system had depends on which figure in the regulator's own report is used. The Department of Energy's 2023 Annual Technical Report gives installed production capacity as 4.74 million m³ a day in one place and 4.14 million m³ a day in another, each labelled 1,043 MIGD.

Two margins from one report

On the higher figure, capacity exceeded peak demand by 1.15 million m³ a day, about 32% of peak. On the lower figure, the margin was 0.55 million m³ a day, about 15%. Peak demand fell 1.91% on 2022; 0.25 million m³ a day of it went to the Northern Emirates.

Contracts running out

The margin matters because more than 2 million m³ a day of contracted water capacity reaches expiry between 2024 and 2037, according to EWEC, the emirate's single buyer of water. EWEC also forecasts growth in combined power and water demand of about 5% a year to 2035.

New plants, and gaps behind them

Two reverse osmosis plants add about 0.86 million m³ a day: Mirfa 2, reported operational by its partner ENGIE, and Shuweihat 4, whose Q2 2026 commercial operation had not been announced as of 11 November 2026. EWEC recommends procuring at least 0.28 million m³ a day more by 2029. The next named plant, Saadiyat, has held only a letter of award since 27 February 2025. Cancellation was reported as possible in late 2025, but MEED still described it as being developed by Acciona in April 2026.

Operations held up

Day to day, supply held in 2023: transmission interruptions cost 0.0078% of supply, against a KPI below 0.05%, and every customer on the network in the ADDC area (ADDC is now part of TAQA Distribution), which covers Abu Dhabi and Al Dhafra, was on continuous supply.

How EWEC's outlook to 2031 is built, where groundwater fits and which developments would change the supply picture are covered in the brief. The full report, Water Security and Supply Outlook in Abu Dhabi, is available for USD 249. For a free overview, see Abu Dhabi City Snapshot.

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