United Utilities forecasts that, without action, its Strategic Resource Zone would face a deficit of 52.6 Ml/d in 2025/26, widening to 314.9 Ml/d by 2049/50. Its 2024 water resources plan relies far more on cutting demand than on new supply.
A wet region with a fast-draining system
In a typical year 93% of the North West's supply comes from rivers and reservoirs and only 7% from groundwater. Reservoirs drop quickly in dry spells: in 2018 Castle Carrock in Cumbria fell from around 95% to around 50% full in about three months. Temporary use bans are currently planned for once in 20 years; the aim is once in 40 years by 2031.
Why the gap grows
Demand is forecast to rise only about 0.7% over 25 years. Available supply in the Strategic and Carlisle zones is forecast to fall by around 258 Ml/d by 2050. The move to a 1-in-500-year drought standard from 2039 cuts Strategic zone deployable output from 2006.4 to 1901.4 Ml/d, and river protection could remove 131 Ml/d of licensed abstraction by 2050.
Demand does most of the work
Under the final plan, the Strategic zone instead reaches a surplus of 133.3 Ml/d by 2049/50. Almost 70% of that benefit comes from demand management, while supply schemes contribute about 1.1%. The targets are to halve leakage and reach 110 liters per person per day by 2050.
Delivery is the open question. In 2024/25 leakage fell 7.3% against its baseline, missing the year-five target, and in April 2026 the company said it expected to miss its three-year rolling leakage target.
How do the two aqueducts that carry this water compare in risk, and what does the plan mean for the North West Transfer of up to 180 Ml/d? The full report, Water Systems Overview: United Utilities, is available for USD 499. For a free overview, read the United Utilities Utility Snapshot.