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Executive overview
Key findings
52.6 → 314.9 Ml/d: forecast baseline deficit in the Strategic Resource Zone, 2025/26 to 2049/50, before any new action (projection)
c.£11.5 billion: capital investment guidance for 2025–2030, up from c.£9 billion (company guidance, April 2026; reaffirmed September 2026)
c.£3 billion: estimated construction cost of the Haweswater Aqueduct Resilience Programme, which replaces c.50km of tunnels on a 110km aqueduct serving 2.5 million people
388: total pollution incidents in 2025, with a two-star "requires improvement" rating from the Environment Agency (published October 29, 2026)
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Buyer relevance
Who the report is for
Water resources and drought planners
Compare United Utilities' four resource zones, the 258 Ml/d forecast fall in supply and the demand-led plan that reaches a 133.3 Ml/d surplus by 2049/50.
Contractors and engineering consultants
Track status and cost of the c.£3 billion Haweswater aqueduct program, the £260 million Vyrnwy relining and the £200 million Windermere program.
Credit and infrastructure investors
See the regulatory settlement in one table, from the £12 billion draft totex to regulatory capital value of £16,527 million and gearing of 60%.
Environmental regulators and catchment partners
Follow pollution incidents per 10,000km of sewer from 16.29 in 2022/23 to 45.00 in 2024/25 against the 2025 two-star rating.
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Decision scope
Questions answered
Is the North West short of water?
Not today: 93% of supply comes from rivers and reservoirs, but without action the Strategic zone deficit is projected to grow from 52.6 Ml/d in 2025/26 to 314.9 Ml/d by 2049/50.
How does United Utilities plan to close that gap?
Mainly through demand: almost 70% of the forecast benefit by 2049/50 comes from demand management, while supply schemes contribute about 1.1%.
How large is the 2025–2030 capital program?
The company guides to c.£11.5 billion of capital investment, against c.£8.5 billion in the company's January 2025 framework following Ofwat's December 2024 final determination.
How has wastewater performance changed?
Pollution incidents rose from 16.29 per 10,000km of sewer in 2022/23 to 45.00 in 2024/25, and the Environment Agency counted 388 incidents in 2025.
Which projects carry the most risk to supply?
The Haweswater and Vyrnwy aqueducts, which together supply about 3.5 million people and are both being renewed.
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Inside the report
Inside the complete report
Executive Overview
1. Water Resource Profile
2. Governance and Institutional Framework
3. Infrastructure and Service Delivery
Strategic Outlook and Opportunities
Source Register
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Public preview
What to watch next
1. Water Resource Profile
Leakage against the three-year rolling target, which the company expected to miss in its April 2026 results; the gate 3 submission on the North West Transfer, which the plan expected in 2026; and the scope of abstraction license changes to be set for the 2029 plan.
2. Governance and Institutional Framework
Ofwat's December 2026 cost change decision; interim results on November 12, 2026; publication of the transition plan and introduction of the Water Reform Bill; and the Supreme Court hearing in February 2027.
3. Infrastructure and Service Delivery
Pollution incidents in the 2026/27 annual performance report against the 2025/26 level; the Compliance Risk Index; and whether leakage returns to its target path as smart meter data begins to flow.
Strategic Outlook and Opportunities
Ofwat's final cost change decision in December 2026; the start of tunnelling on the Haweswater aqueduct; Vyrnwy's Delamere section by March 2027; pollution incident numbers in the Environment Agency's next assessment; and any change to the c.£11.5 billion guidance at the November 12, 2026 interim results.
Operating performance from 2020/21 to 2025/26 and the Environment Agency's assessment for 2021 to 2025.
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Included
What you receive
The complete PDF report: 11 pages, 6 sections, 9 tables and a register of 28 sources.
This edition
November 2026, First edition.
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Evidence & method
Evidence and method
The report draws on United Utilities' annual performance reports from 2016/17 to 2025/26, its Water Resources Management Plan 2024, its FY2025/26 results and Ofwat's 2024 price determination documents. It also uses Drinking Water Inspectorate and Environment Agency performance assessments, including the 2025 report published in October 2026, and company project updates to November 2026.
Sources
28 sources, listed in the report's source register. Evidence current to 4 November 2026. Principal data periods: FY2025/26 annual performance report and results (year ended March 31, 2026); Water Resources Management Plan 2024 (final, December 2024); the 2025–2030 price control period; project and regulatory status checked to November 4, 2026. All currency is pounds sterling (£)..
Evidence boundaries
This report uses authoritative source material available at the stated research cutoff. It distinguishes published facts, calculated values and analytical interpretation. No independent modelling is performed. Forward-looking analysis reflects published plans, documented trends and stated uncertainties. It does not constitute legal, financial, investment or engineering advice.
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Lead analyst
Robert C. Brears
Founder, Our Future Water Intelligence
Robert C. Brears is a water-security specialist and author whose work examines utility governance, infrastructure investment, climate resilience and long-term water-system change for executive and policy audiences.
- Decision-focused utility intelligence
- Published water-policy author
- Evidence-grounded system analysis
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Buyer FAQs
Before you purchase
Who can use the report?
Licensed for internal use within one purchasing organization. The PDF and its contents may be shared with colleagues within that organization. External redistribution, resale and public publication are prohibited without permission.
How is the report delivered?
The PDF is available to download immediately after confirmed payment, through our secure delivery system.
Can my organization buy wider access?
Institutional purchasing: For invoice enquiries, multi-organization licensing or broader access requirements, contact Our Future Water Intelligence.
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Water Systems Overview: United Utilities
- Format
- Length
- 11 pages
- Edition
- November 2026, First edition
- Price
- USD 499
11
Report details
Publication details
- Publisher
- Our Future Water Intelligence
- Report family
- Water Utility Intelligence Report
- Edition
- November 2026, First edition
- Format
- Length
- 11 pages
- Reference
- OFW_EXT_WATER_SYSTEMS_OVERVIEW_UNITED_UTILITIES_65fc6b05a45e
- Evidence current to
- 4 November 2026
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