On July 23, 2026, eight Scottish river catchments stood at Moderate Scarcity, including the Almond, Tyne (Lothian), Firth of Forth, Firth of Tay and Tweed. Most lie on the east side of the country, where Scottish Water's own planning places its largest future supply gap.
A deficit that grows four times over
Scottish Water's February 2024 Climate Change Adaptation Plan puts the national supply deficit in drought at 60 Ml/d today. Without adaptation it projects around 240 Ml/d by 2050, of which around 100 Ml/d falls in key population centers. The utility's May 2025 long-term strategy names the area around Edinburgh, the Lothians and Fife, home to 1.6 million customers, as the place the impact will be greatest.
Demand is the larger lever
Average use in Scotland is 178 litres a person a day, against a combined 137 litres in England and Wales. Scottish Water supplied 1.48 billion litres a day in 2024/25, and says demand can push over 2 billion litres on a hot summer day. During the dry start to 2025, the driest since 1964, demand fell by 60 million litres a day.
Leakage has barely moved
Leakage was 462 Ml/d in 2023/24, 454 Ml/d in 2024/25 and 453 Ml/d in 2025/26, missing an in-year target of 450 Ml/d. The regulator's June 2026 draft proposes a final target of 369 Ml/d in 2032-33. Climate projections add a treatment risk too: an estimated 200 water sources face greater risk of manganese and algal blooms by 2050.
Which institutions decide how the east is protected, how the 2027–33 settlement funds leakage and resource work, and how the asset base compares across sources are among the questions the full report answers. The full report, Water Systems Overview: Scottish Water, is available for USD 499. For a free overview, read the Scottish Water Utility Snapshot.