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Executive overview
Key findings
60 → 240 Ml/d: national supply deficit in drought, now and by 2050 without adaptation (projection, 2024 Climate Change Adaptation Plan)
0.11% → 0.41%: share of water mains replaced each year, 2021–27 actual versus the rate Scottish Water proposes for 2027–33
£7,946 million: total 2027–33 investment in the regulator's Draft Determination (2024-25 prices), against £8.1 billion proposed by Scottish Water
CPI + 2%: annual charge cap in the Draft Determination, against CPI + 3.3% requested; the Final Determination is due November 12, 2026
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Buyer relevance
Who the report is for
Engineering and infrastructure firms bidding into Scotland's water sector
Size the 2027–33 program from the £7,946 million Draft Determination, the £8.1 billion Scottish Water proposal and the proposed rise in mains renewal from 0.11% to 0.41% a year.
Policy and regulatory teams following UK water reform
Compare Scotland's single public operator, its separate economic, drinking water and environmental regulators, and the CPI + 2% charge cap with other UK models.
Water resources and climate adaptation planners
Locate supply risk in the east of Scotland, where 1.6 million customers live and eight catchments reached Moderate Scarcity in July 2026.
Investors and lenders with exposure to Scottish public infrastructure
Read the FY 2025/26 regulated revenue of £1,738 million and the £1,030 million borrowing assumption against the charge path for 2027–33.
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Decision scope
Questions answered
How large is Scotland's projected water supply deficit?
Scottish Water's 2024 Climate Change Adaptation Plan puts the deficit in drought at 60 Ml/d now and around 240 Ml/d by 2050 without adaptation, with the east of Scotland most affected.
What has the regulator proposed for 2027–33?
The June 2026 Draft Determination supports £7,946 million of investment in 2024-25 prices at a cap of CPI + 2% a year, against the CPI + 3.3% Scottish Water requested; the final decision is due November 12, 2026.
How fast is Scottish Water renewing its water mains?
It replaced 0.11% of its mains a year over 2021–27 and proposes 0.41% for 2027–33.
Is leakage falling?
Leakage was 462 Ml/d in FY 2023/24, 454 Ml/d in FY 2024/25 and 453 Ml/d in FY 2025/26, against an in-year target of 450 Ml/d.
How would household bills change?
The Draft Determination projects the average household bill rising from £537 in 2026-27 to £605 in 2032-33 before inflation, or £610 if uncertain costs materialize.
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Inside the report
Inside the complete report
Executive Overview
1. Water Resource Profile
2. Governance and Institutional Framework
3. Infrastructure and Service Delivery
Strategic Outlook and Opportunities
Source Register
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Public preview
What to watch next
Strategic Outlook and Opportunities
The Final Determination on November 12, 2026, and Scottish Water's response; the 2027–33 Delivery Plan and how renewal and leakage targets are written into it; any change to net new borrowing above £1,030 million; Consumer Scotland's proposal to raise the Water Charges Reduction Scheme from 35% to 50%; the first year of DV4 delivery from April 2027.
2. Governance and Institutional Framework
The Final Determination on November 12, 2026; publication of the final Ministerial Objectives and Principles of Charging; Scottish Water's response to the determination; the structure of the 2027–33 Delivery Plan the Commission says it is developing.
3. Infrastructure and Service Delivery
Leakage against the 450 Ml/d level and the new 2027–33 targets; the drinking water regulator's 2026 report on chlorate; delivery of the 97 overflow improvements (60 from the original 108 priority sites) by December 2027; the mains renewal rate in the Final Determination.
1. Water Resource Profile
Scarcity reports from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency through the next dry season; whether the Final Determination funds resource and transfer schemes for the east; results from the Dundee household smart monitoring pilot, where close to 1,500 monitors were installed in early 2025.
The 2027–33 settlement stages, from Scottish Water's draft plan to the Final Determination due November 12, 2026, with investment and charge paths side by side.
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Included
What you receive
The complete PDF report: 12 pages, 6 sections, 11 tables and a register of 30 sources.
This edition
October 2026, First edition.
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Evidence & method
Evidence and method
The report draws on Scottish Water's annual reports to FY 2025/26, its long-term strategy, adaptation plan and business plans; the economic regulator's determinations and performance reports; the drinking water regulator's annual reports to 2025; and Scottish Government, Scottish Parliament, environmental regulator and Consumer Scotland publications, with time-sensitive items checked to October 31, 2026.
Sources
30 sources, listed in the report's source register. Evidence current to 31 October 2026. Principal data periods: FY 2025/26 annual report (year ended March 31, 2026); calendar 2025 drinking water quality data; the 2021–27 regulatory period; the 2027–33 Draft Determination (June 2026). All currency is pounds sterling (£)..
Evidence boundaries
This report uses authoritative source material available at the stated research cutoff. It distinguishes published facts, calculated values and analytical interpretation. No independent modelling is performed. Forward-looking analysis reflects published plans, documented trends and stated uncertainties. It does not constitute legal, financial, investment or engineering advice.
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Lead analyst
Robert C. Brears
Founder, Our Future Water Intelligence
Robert C. Brears is a water-security specialist and author whose work examines utility governance, infrastructure investment, climate resilience and long-term water-system change for executive and policy audiences.
- Decision-focused utility intelligence
- Published water-policy author
- Evidence-grounded system analysis
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Buyer FAQs
Before you purchase
Who can use the report?
Licensed for internal use within one purchasing organization. The PDF and its contents may be shared with colleagues within that organization. External redistribution, resale and public publication are prohibited without permission.
How is the report delivered?
The PDF is available to download immediately after confirmed payment, through our secure delivery system.
Can my organization buy wider access?
Institutional purchasing: For invoice enquiries, multi-organization licensing or broader access requirements, contact Our Future Water Intelligence.
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Water Systems Overview: Scottish Water
- Format
- Length
- 12 pages
- Edition
- October 2026, First edition
- Price
- USD 499
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Report details
Publication details
- Publisher
- Our Future Water Intelligence
- Report family
- Water Utility Intelligence Report
- Edition
- October 2026, First edition
- Format
- Length
- 12 pages
- Reference
- OFW_EXT_WATER_SYSTEMS_OVERVIEW_SCOTTISH_WATER_092bd4e9d4b1
- Evidence current to
- 31 October 2026
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